Last Wednesday, Guest Writer Jessica Weinfeld attended a book talk by Professor Suisheng Zhao, author of “The Dragon Roars Back: Transformational Leaders and Dynamics of Chinese Foreign Policy“.

Over the past decade, Chinese foreign policy has undergone major shifts: tightened security laws have pushed foreign companies and investments away, coercive diplomatic tactics have resulted in military threats to neighboring countries, and international rhetoric has reached a truly troubling level. According to Professor Suisheng Zhao, author of The Dragon Roars Back: Transformational Leaders and Dynamics of Chinese Foreign Policy and Director of the Center for China-US Cooperation at the University of Denver, Chinese dictator Xi Jinping is behind this new and threatening behavior.

This past Wednesday, Professor Zhao spoke about his new book at an event hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute. In The Dragon Roars Back, Professor Zhao explores the different leaders in China’s history and how, in China’s one-party dictatorship, the leader at the top makes all the difference. 

Two models have previously been used to attempt to explain China’s actions on the world stage. Structural realism suggests that a country’s actions are determined by its power and abilities. As China became powerful, its ambitions expanded; therefore, the increase in Chinese aggression is a result of China’s status as a world power. Professor Zhao dismisses this explanation, noting that under Mao Zedong, China fought in six different wars, even with a developing economy. Additionally, the expansion of China’s economy began under previous leaders who were not nearly as aggressive as Xi is today.

Regime type theory, the second model, suggests that China’s behavior is driven entirely by its authoritarian system. However, Professor Zhao also finds this explanation lacking. China’s foreign policy has undergone major shifts even as its authoritarianism has remained unchanged.

Instead, Professor Zhao proposes a leadership-centered model, where the person at the top determines the direction of Chinese policy. The three most influential leaders, Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, and Xi Jinping, were each transformative for China, but Professor Zhao argues that Xi has consolidated power in a way no other leader ever has, ensuring that his rule is the most ironclad in modern Chinese history.

When Xi Jinping rose to power, he embarked on an anti-corruption campaign that enabled him to eliminate rival factions within China. He filled positions with people who are directly loyal to him, politicizing the bureaucracy. Recently, the Chinese defense minister, Li Shangfu, became the latest in a chain of Chinese officials to disappear. With only one person at the top, Professor Zhao warns, the Chinese government falls prey to a dictatorship’s immobilism and misdirection: no decisions occur without Xi’s micromanagement, and no other factions exist to push back against Xi’s mistakes. 

Professor Zhao describes Xi’s rule as an overreach, noting that Xi has accomplished nothing but the centralization of his own power. In order to achieve this goal, Xi has built up more of a tolerance for conflict and economic pushback. Whereas past Chinese leadership used foreign policy to assist the Chinese economy, Xi is currently sacrificing China for an aggressive foreign policy. When the international community pushes back against Chinese coercion, Xi sees threats everywhere and only doubles down on crushing internal dissent and challenging other countries. As foreign investment dwindles, this strategy could prove disastrous for China.

The shift has become noticeable in the behavior of Chinese diplomats overseas. Gone are the professionals who knew the meaning of “diplomacy.” Instead, the representatives are confrontational and aggressive toward their host countries, loyal to Xi, and intolerant of any criticism. According to people Professor Zhao spoke with, the ambassador to Japan has become a “totally different person.” 

Professor Zhao says he is “not optimistic” about the direction in which China is headed. He doubts that there is anyone left in China who can realistically oppose or influence Xi. He described Xi as a “crusader” who will do whatever it takes for his mission of expanded power.

After his talk, Professor Zhao took questions from the audience. One person asked if Xi’s behavior was really a mistake for China.

“Absolutely it is a mistake,” Professor Zhao responded, giving examples of the many ways China’s economy and international standing are suffering. “In my lifetime, I could not imagine such a return to authoritarianism.”

China on the globe via Wikimedia Commons