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With the second most delegates of any state, New York promises to be a critical part of Super Tuesday on February 5th. Here’s a brief rundown of what to expect; be sure to keep your mice on the refresh button a week from today and watch as shit gets consequential.
For most of the primary season Giuliani has been considered a shoo-in for the Republican nomination, but our fair fascist former-mayor’s campaign has been nose-diving for about a month now, and it’s starting to look like he’s not going to make it to Valentines’ Day—the most recent Gallup Poll showed McCain stomping him with an 18% lead, whereas a month ago Quinnipiac showed Giuliani leading McCain by 23%. New York GOP Primaries are winner take all, so McCain is almost guaranteed to pick up 101 delegates.
Things should be a bit more interesting for New York Democrats. Though Clinton’s lead over Obama has been fluctuating between 20% and 30% since January of last year, in New York Democrats award delegates proportionately. Well, kind of: because of ancient election policies, if Obama wins 30% of the vote in any district he is guaranteed to receive 40% of that districts delegates, so Obama organizers have been campaigning hard, particularly in New York City, to ensure they get their (un)fair share of the 281 NY Democratic delegates.
Newsday.com, however, thinks that Obama may not do as well in New York as he may like to—in South Carolina and Iowa Obama relied partially on the votes of independents, but in New York only registered Democrats can vote in the primaries.
Also, Ted Kennedy’s endorsement may have tickled Obama pink, but it sure didn’t tickle some feminists’ pinks: the New York chapter of the National Organization of Women described it as the “ultimate betrayal.” CNN reports.
In Mike Bloomberg news, there is still no news, sort of. The mayor has been flirting with the media for months, and he likely wouldn’t declare his candidacy (if he does decide to run) until after primaries end and the GOP and Democratic candidates are picked, but check out Seo Hee Im’s article in the Spec investigating the issue, and for more election fun, be sure to check out USA Today’s poll tracker, which maps the results of all major presidential polls beginning in January 2007.
– Joseph Meyers
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50 Comments
@um has anyone ever heard of this thing called history? it can these days be relayed via the internet. you dont have to live in fucking new york city to understand certain things that are going on in new york city or were going on in new york city. its truly debatable whether or not it was giuliani who turned the city around and born and bred new yorkers probably are less objectively capable of answering that question than an outsider with the facts. one of those facts is that the crime rate started declining months before giuliani was elected and then fired the police commissioner after he came into office. the whole economic turning the city around part probably cant be attributed to giuliani either, i mean there is this whole thing called economics which g-dog in all reality didnt have much control over, though some of his critics might like to claim he did as that would qualify in a way as fascism.
@also.. I don’t buy that one of hillary or obama would necessarily be weaker vs a repub. They both have vulnerabilities but I think both have the ability to win a plurality—remember all they have to do is win ohio and florida..and maybe sneak in a tennessee or kentucky or something (considering the republican’s pathetic display in kentucky w/their governor and their senile senator its a possibility).
@hilz Haha. I would not say DEFINITELY in either case, but it is the other way around if anything. A lot of college students are Obama supporters. Probably a majority. Interestingly, however, Hillary has received the majority of faculty campaign contributions from this school (it’s the other way around at NYU). As for myself, I’m personally not enamored by either one of them.
@there was no anti-obama sentiment in this article. also, i think a good a majority of people on this campus are pro-obama (bwog staffers as well)
secondly, if obama wins the primaries we are DEFINITELY going to have a republican president. not if hilz wins
@meh “not if hilz wins”
???? don’t get out much do you? Nothing gets out the republican vote more than the Clintons. Particularly now that McCain is the probable candidate, Obama will take his independent votes.
@yeah.. cause mccain is really weak amongst independents (note for snarky bwog posters–this is sarcasm–i believe mccain’s only leading the republicans because he has gotten so much independent and moderate support)?
i’m an independent and like i said, while i don’t agree with the guy, he’s a brazillion times better than past republican chimps who have vyed for pres.
I’d seriously consider voting for him if teh democratic candidate didn’t play towards the middle. Either way, I hate the dem race right now–its ugly and invective—even with all of obama’s claims of being a uniter.
You know who else said he was a uniter before an election? Bush 2. And Hitler. Hitler especially.
@chyah yeah going to have to disagree. people fucking hate hillary. i mean a lot of people like her, but if she gets the nomination, the republican is going to be able to get people to vote for him just to stop her.
@disagree We have already disagreed for you.
@Anonymous Oop, yeah, if I had hit track, I would have probably realized that you were kidding. I’m so used to seeing pretty much any ludicrous advocacy of Ron Paul being taken seriously by the people doing it. Thanks for nothing, the rest of the internet.
@THis Article was brilliant
@anti-rjt rob trump plays ball like a girl.
@:( sadface Man, I wonder what the decision-making process is like when it comes to dropping out of a race. Like is it the decision of the candidate or the candidate’s campaign, what do you tell big donors, etc.
@Were any of you even around when Giuliani was mayor? I highly doubt it. Props to 26 for calling you idiots out on it.
That being said, he clearly no longer stands a chance at the nomination — which, in retrospect, is a good thing. My excitement at the start of his campaign was rivaled only by my disgust at his trivialization of 9/11 at every possible opportunity. I think as New Yorkers we all acknowledge his leadership and skill in the following days, but to use such an event as a talking point for every occasion is absolutely shameless.
@Nitpicky I think you mean “shameful.” He might “shamelessly use such an event as a talking point,” but when he does so, it’s “shameful.”
@DHI When he does so, it is “showing lack of shame.” That is what “shameless” means.
@oops... sorry, didn’t have my coffee yet ;-)
@Dominique Politics aside, I thought the picture was of Patsy from AbFab. But apparently it’s not. Shoot.
@another another one bites the dust
edwards is pulling out of the race: http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/30/edwards-is-dropping-out/
go obama!
@Anonymous It warms the cockles of my heart to see a poster without a little crown support Ron Paul and then get yelled at by several crowned posters. Does that make me a prick?
Also, ditto the confusion on why “fascist” was warranted. Call Giuliani a fascist in a funny way or don’t do it all.
@no. but it does make you and those crowned posters hilariously stupid.
My ‘Ron Paul’ comment was actually a completely non sequitur joke in my questions about ‘super delegates’. Not only was the juxtaposition of the ron paul question something that should have made these politically anal retentive bwog posters think a bit, but they also could have realized that while paul is a libertarian, he’s actually really socially conservative. If i don’t like mccain for that reason (or at least until i decide he’s still teh best candidate in the national election) i sure as heck can’t support somebody who’s pro life, pro death penalty and anti gay marriage.
If these noble and high minded crowned posters had also just checked the tracking feature, they’d have noticed that I haven’t exactly been the most serious poster on this thread.
I am somewhat proud of inspiring ron paul hate though…even though the people who purportedly hate him appear as simple minded as he was.
also as a nyc’er since birth i’d like to second the support for #26. the reason why graduating editors at the bwog and spec can move into apartments just south of harlem/washington heights and in harlem is largely because of guiliani. But somebody think of the squeegees!!!
@real new yorker “our fair fascist former mayor”??!
Just because you all go to Columbia does not mean that Rudy was your former mayor, nor does it make you any authority on his mayoral record. The fact that you would assign the word ‘fascist’ to this man without any foundation reveals the shallow level of your familiarity with him. I wouldn’t be surprised if you based your dismisal or the mayor simply on the rhetorical vomit you pick up from TV.
As a true New Yorker, born and raised in what has come to be, thanks to Mayor Giuliani, the greatest city in the world, allow me to say definitively: Shame On You!
@i love what giuliani did for this city too, but he’s still a fascist.
but whatever, a name’s a name. he made the trains run on time, and that’s all i care about.
@invisible_hand re: the NOW-NY message of betrayal:
all prominent feminist blogs online are repudiating NOW-NY’s poorly chosen tactic.
http://halfricanrevolution.blogspot.com/2008/01/feminist-reaction-to-now-ny.html
@also post #4 is foolish. yes, it’s likely that Republicans will be less mobilized/evil in running against obama.
but if you look at head-to-head polling, they both destroy all republicans, except mccain, and both are in a statistical dead heat with mccain
hth
@head to head As far as the head-to-head goes, McCain’s now looking even more competitive than you described….
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/john_mccain_match_ups/election_2008_mccain_vs_clinton_and_obama
@paul paul also believes in UFOs, the NAFTA superhighway, and a return to fiat currency…he’s a conspiracy theorist
@candidates How many of you have found a candidate that you truly like? I must say that, despite all of the excitement expressed by the news media about this campaign, I have never seen one so uninspiring in my memory (despite all the antics and drama).
@If I was socially... conservative I would like McCain.
@well I’m not socially conservative and I like (and will vote for) McCain. Honestly, I’m not sure what McCain will do exactly to advance social conservatism, so I’m not too concerned. The biggest impact he will have is on judges, but it’s debatable whether he would be able to get an Alito or Roberts type through the Senate.
@agreed I consider myself pretty politically passionate, but all these primaries have made me want to do is quit reading the news. My state’s primary isn’t until May, though, so I guess it doesn’t matter too much.
@how is pointing out that
1) clinton leads obama in new york and
2) that it could be unfair that obama get 30% of the vote in a district and get 40% of the delegates
anti obama?
it’s not.
@this. I also don’t understand this superdelegates deal. Do they have to vote with a majority? How are the released? Have they considered Ron Paul’s candidacy?
@Please stop this Ron Paul absurdity. He is nice, but a loon. He voted against federal aid for Katrina victims, asking “Is bailing out people that chose to live on
the coastline a proper function of the federal government?”
And his free-trade stance is inconsistent with his views on immigration.
@thank you this shit is ridiculous. ron paul is batshit crazy. sincere and well-intentioned, but absolutely fuckin crazy. to you pseudo-revolutionary supporters of his, stop with all of your bullshit please and listen to the guy’s policies (in favor of abolishing most major government agencies): if you actually believe in what he preaches then you’re so far anti-government that should probably be leading some anarchist revolution right now rather than posting on bwog and patting yourself on the back for picking everybody’s favorite underdog.
@1231132 Giuliani never had a chance. Fuck NYU.
Giuliani ruined his own image by doing the shits he’s done in the past year. Just another rat.
@NOW is redunk but Hillary ftw!
@DHI Yeah that NOW statement is ridiculous.
@to be fair anyone who’s paid attention to NOW in the recent past knows that anyone who disagrees the least bit with one of their political/social positions is someone who has ‘betrayed’ women
@invisible_hand it should be noted that NOW-NY is not the same thing as national NOW, which is run by much more level headed people.
@for real isn’t it a betrayal of the struggle to consider women on an equal plane with men to favor a woman solely for her gender? especially when, as intelligent and capable as she may, hillary gained so much of her power via marriage.
@seriously how the FUCK does supporting obama make one an anti-feminist? gee i guess the other 157 delegates on obama’s side are misogynists as well. GET OVER YOURSELVES
@how do you know who eskimos might vote for?
Take a North Poll!
@el serio What on earth is NOW’s problem? It’s SO obnoxious to accuse Ted Kennedy of being a sexist and a backstabber just because he doesn’t back Hillary. If anything, to me this just undermines the sanity of Hillary’s support base.
@your crriticism Mary Jo Kopechne respectfully disagrees.
@a little bias with our picture of giuliani in drag? he still looks better as a woman than hillary clinton.
also, why the anti-obama sentiment i detect in this article. he stands the best chance of getting elected of the democrats. you get hillary as the nominee and it is fucking over. you can lay down the carpet for eight more years of republican dominance.
@GUILIANI IS OUT Whoa!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/giuliani;_ylt=ArmDsJRHjmGk1JgnhxRAPu6WwvIE
@Why is that such a surprise?
@Link To a useful piece about NY delegation distribution:
http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/mysteries-of-new-york-democratic-delegates-explained/
@because that’s a picture of him…
@haha Why is “Rudy Giuliani” a tag for this?