With the second most delegates of any state, New York promises to be a critical part of Super Tuesday on February 5th. Here’s a brief rundown of what to expect; be sure to keep your mice on the refresh button a week from today and watch as shit gets consequential.

    For most of the primary season Giuliani has been considered a shoo-in for the Republican nomination, but our fair fascist former-mayor’s campaign has been nose-diving for about a month now, and it’s starting to look like he’s not going to make it to Valentines’ Day—the most recent Gallup Poll showed McCain stomping him with an 18% lead, whereas a month ago Quinnipiac showed Giuliani leading McCain by 23%. New York GOP Primaries are winner take all, so McCain is almost guaranteed to pick up 101 delegates.   

Things should be a bit more interesting for New York Democrats. Though Clinton’s lead over Obama has been fluctuating between 20% and 30% since January of last year, in New York Democrats award delegates proportionately. Well, kind of: because of ancient election policies, if Obama wins 30% of the vote in any district he is guaranteed to receive 40% of that districts delegates, so Obama organizers have been campaigning hard, particularly in New York City, to ensure they get their (un)fair share of the 281 NY Democratic delegates.


, however, thinks that Obama may not do as well in New York as he may like to—in South Carolina and Iowa Obama relied partially on the votes of independents, but in New York only registered Democrats can vote in the primaries.     

Also, Ted Kennedy’s endorsement may have tickled Obama pink, but it sure didn’t tickle some feminists’ pinks: the New York chapter of the National Organization of Women described it as the “ultimate betrayal.” CNN reports.   

In Mike Bloomberg news, there is still no news, sort of. The mayor has been flirting with the media for months, and he likely wouldn’t declare his candidacy (if he does decide to run) until after primaries end and the GOP and Democratic candidates are picked, but check out Seo Hee Im’s article in the Spec investigating the issue, and for more election fun, be sure to check out USA Today’s poll tracker, which maps the results of all major presidential polls beginning in January 2007.

– Joseph Meyers