On Wednesday, Staff Writer Adria Marin attended Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) and the Aspen Institute Science & Society Program’s lecture by Lee McIntyre, where he explored an interesting philosophical question.

Is rational belief in improbable theories ever warranted? Lee McIntyre, a Philosopher of Science at Boston University, explored this question, and the answer is: Well, depends!

What makes something scientific? Scientists care so much about evidence that if the evidence changes, they change their minds. But what about those who don’t believe in science? How are they able to jump to conclusions without rationalizing what is presented?

“Pseudoscientists” and deniers of science alike are criticized by scientists, philosophers, and professional skeptics for their naive ability to accept improbable theories that are not strongly supported by evidence. 

“I have spent my entire career as a defender of science, reason, and skepticism,” McIntyre said. For years, he has been fascinated by the “irrationality” of science deniers. Yet at this talk, he said he would explore “something that happened to me, that made me wonder at what point skepticism means that the skeptic, the scientist, the hardcore defender of reason, has to say: ‘That’s sufficient evidence, I change my mind.’”In other words, could a scientist be forced to set their scientific principles aside based on evidence? To explore this question, McIntyre explored the story of an Italian man who predicted his own death, and the factors influencing whether or not there is rationality behind the value of saying that this was a true prediction.

When on a trip in Rome, McIntyre was strolling around the Piazza Navona and encountered several fortune tellers. He soon heard of a story in which one predicted his own death through the use of Tarot cards. This fortune teller drew the death card five times in a row. 

To draw the same card five times in a row out of a deck of 78 is highly improbable, but that does not mean it is impossible, for there is a difference between possibility and probability. The fortune teller died two weeks after and is said to have predicted his own death. 

However, it is important that we manage the value of the predictions that we make. Five cards do not equal death, and the fortune teller could have passed from natural causes. Maybe he was a fraud and had debts to be paid. Or maybe someone stacked his deck with death cards. Nonetheless, there are many unknown factors that could have been at play here. 

Correlation does not equal causation. McIntyre explains how irrationality and belief in an improbable event are different from the belief in an event once it has occurred to you—in the latter scenario, you become evidence of the highly unlikely statistic being possible. Everyone is going to die one day; was this two-week gap sufficient enough to draw a conclusion? We simply do not know. However, we are sure that anyone can believe in what they want to believe in.

McIntyre’s lecture culminated with a Q&A session, in which many interesting points were brought up. An audience member explained how humans sometimes act in ways that at first appear to be irrational, but end up aligning with scientific conclusions. For example, many religions practiced handwashing prior to germ theory. While this action may have been seen as irrational before, it is now socially acceptable and encouraged to engage in handwashing on a regular basis, regardless of religion. 

Also mentioned by an audience member were self-fulfilling prophecies, which are when someone makes decisions based on the belief that they are signs. Therefore, a belief in Tarot cards could lead to taking a different path based on what cards are drawn. This could almost mean that the fortune teller caused his death if he changed his actions based on the five-drawn death card. 

In Lee McIntyre’s closing remarks, he announced that his paper “Is Rational Belief in Improbably Theories Ever Warranted?” will be released in Skeptical Inquirer this coming June. McIntyre ended by saying, “Don’t get me wrong, I’m such a believer in science!”

Image via Bwog Archives